MIN/Sp/AU/CAMH3/6 TB Page 14 Madagascar Malawi 52 58 Mali 54 60 58 62 59 65 72 63 80 72 71 20 21 24 35 27 28 25 67 70 66 63 73 61 75 66 70 64 81 60 26 28 27 30 32 Mauritania 93 107 48 82 62 58 39 49 Mauritius 10 9 10 9 10 10 7 7 8 10 9 7 66 64 66 70 72 73 75 80 82 85 87 87 42 167 184 200 204 213 237 241 279 259 259 262 35 31 25 27 30 29 36 34 38 38 9 10 10 11 13 14 18 17 21 24 25 28 33 35 44 63 56 45 38 45 52 46 45 45 64 57 56 22 50 21 56 29 57 29 53 22 59 33 56 32 57 23 60 12 14 15 11 6 15 9 55 57 60 60 69 78 Mozambique 64 63 Namibia Niger 5 Nigeria 2 Rwanda Sao Tome & Principe Senegal Seychelles 21 52 3 16 8 14 17 11 34 35 54 54 53 South Africa 56 99 125 150 161 167 182 212 247 266 262 272 Swaziland Togo Uganda 228 20 70 19 76 18 78 171 17 77 172 18 70 119 72 69 20 64 68 129 21 73 144 22 75 171 26 75 194 29 71 224 33 68 59 107 67 108 70 127 70 74 73 114 71 124 71 122 68 150 68 171 69 153 66 129 63 120 21 76 36 100 44 119 45 117 51 115 54 114 54 120 59 124 65 112 71 112 75 100 73 96 72 Sierra Leone 13 60 UR Tanzania Zambia 55 Zimbabwe AFR 47 19 The increasing absolute notifications and rates notwithstanding, there is a tendency towards stabilization of overall rates and decline in new smear positive case notification rates since 2004 (Figure 4.2.2). These findings are consistent with apparent decline in TB cases globally 25 . 4.2.2: Estimated Prevalence, incidence and death rates Relative to MDG targets and basing on 1990 baseline as stipulated in the Stop TB Partnership operationalisation of the MDG targets, estimated regional TB prevalence, incidence and mortality rates have increased and are unlikely to be achieved by 2015 based on current trends (Figure 4.2.2) However, according to the WHO Global TB Report for 2008, by the end of 2006, six countries 26 had already halted and started to reverse overall and smear positive TB incidence as specified in the core MDG targets. A further 6 countries 27 had already halted and started to reverse estimated TB prevalence, while four countries, namely, Angola, Comoros, Sao Tome & Principe and Seychelles had already halted and started to reverse death rates (Table 4.2.2) 25 WHO Global TB Report, 2008 Comoros, Ghana, Mali, Mauritius, Sao Tome & Principe and Seychelles 27 Angola, Benin, Cape Verde, Eritrea, Guinea Bissau and Niger 26 81

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